The Facts

DANGER

By 2000 the arable land in use per head will have fallen to 0.25 hectares from 0.37 hectares in 1975. Between 1980 and 2000 the number of people experiencing acute fuelwood deficit or scarcity will have increased from 1,395 million to 2,986 million.⁸ Estimates that 11 million hectares of forest are being lost every year have recently been revised upwards to 17 million.⁹

OPPORTUNITY

Only 40% of the world's potential arable land was in use in 1975, and that will have increased to 50% in 2000. The critical issue is not the availability but the ownership of land, restricting its productive use. Since 1970 Japan has shown how rice yields can be raised on average 0.9 per cent per year; there is no reason why the basic nutritional needs of the world cannot be met.⁸

DANGER

The world spends more than $1,000 billion per year on arms - more than the total income of one half of the world's population. Military spending since 1960 has doubled in the North and grown sixfold in the South. Just one nuclear submarine belonging to one of the 'superpowers' can destroy all the major cities in the other.¹⁰

OPPORTUNITY

At a conservative estimate arms budgets can be cut by at least $250 billion over the next few years.¹⁰ In the US, for example, spending $1 billion on guided missiles creates about 9,000 jobs; the same amount spent on local transport would create 21,500 jobs and on educational services 63,000 jobs.⁸ But a fundamental shift in economic power and militaristic attitudes will be needed for the 'peace dividend' to be realized.⁸

DANGER

If we carry on abusing the earth's resources we shall be unable to sustain future populations. There are now about 5.3 billion people in the world. By the year 2020 there will be about 8.1 billion, and by 2100 perhaps 11.3 billion, or more than twice present levels.¹

OPPORTUNITY

Women who are poor and uneducated have more children than women who are educated because more of their children die in infancy. Improve the status of women and access to family planning and population growth will fall. In Cuba the population growth rate fell from 2.5% per year in 1960 to 1.0% in 1982 while life expectancy reached 75 years, the same as the US. But in South Africa population growth rate rose from 2.4% to 3.1% during the same period and life expectancy stayed at 63, similar to China or India.²

DANGER

The annual production of waste per head will have doubled during the twentieth century, while the proportion of this waste that is biodegradable will have fallen from more than 90% to under 50%.⁴ The number of cars will grow from 400 million today to 700 million by 2010.⁵ In many cities traffic speeds are now slower, because of congestion, than they were in the age of the horse.⁶

OPPORTUNITY

By 1992 there will be more than 16 million miles of fibre-optic communication cable, each of which can carry 160 times more information than a copper wire.⁷ The need for commuting in and between cities could be drastically reduced. In terms of 'carrying efficiency'' (the space and time used to transport one person), the bicycle is roughly twice as efficient as the car, the bus seven times and surface rapid rail twelve times. The US Department of Energy estimates that renewable energy resources in the US exceed annual use by 250 times.⁸

DANGER

The project to 'map' the human 'genome' will reveal the genetic secrets of the DNA that helps to mould our physical and mental characteristics - the secret of life. By 2050 we may be able to buy a compact dix holding our complete genome.¹¹ Everyone could then be screened for genetic disorders, for which there may be no cures, and the information - for a price - passed onto prospective employers or insurers.¹²

OPPORTUNITY

More than 4,300 genetic disorders have been identified as depending on a single faulty gene. It may soon be possible for these disorders to be controlled or even eliminated.¹³ In agriculture, biotechnology could have a major impact on crop yields - the yield from cassava in Africa could be quadrupled if the plant could be made resistant to African cassava mosaic virus.¹⁴

DANGER

In Africa, the number of people living below the poverty line ($370 per capita per year) is set to increase from 180 million today to 265 million in 2000. In Eastern Europe the number of poor people as a percentage of the total population will actually grow.³

OPPORTUNITY

In South Asia the total number of people living in poverty is expected to fall from over 500 million today to some 360 million by 2000, and In East Asia from 290 million to 60 million. There is even expected to be a slight fall in Latin America to less than 50 million. These estimates are, however, based on optimistic and fairly conventional predictions for economic growth.³